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Thursday
Jul162009

It's the centers of gravity, stupid.

I wanted to write a little about interface standards in consumer electronics.  My purpose here isn't to write an exhaustive history of standards and formats – far from it, in fact – rather I want to present some background as a lead-in to some product-specific discussions that will be coming here on wab in the next 6-12 months.

This first article is only to give a little background on this notion of connection standards in consumer electronics, i.e. how devices from different vendors end up settling on means to send content to and from each other.

In the world of consumer electronics and their device interfaces, the most widely adopted interface formats are what we refer to as "standards."  Like what? To name a few that might sound familiar: USB, Firewire, Ethernet, WiFi, Bluetooth, RCA, VGA, DVI, HDMI, Component Video...

What differentiates interfaces from one another?

  • Some are application specific, some are non-specific

  • Some of these interfaces are digital, some analog in nature.

  • Some are wired, some wireless

  • Some communicate information isochronously, some asychronously

  • Some are secure, others are insecure


...the list goes on an on.  In many ways, the interfaces define the product, but depending on your technical depth or experience with gadgets, your lists of what set them apart will vary.

Common across these example interfaces, and the main point of this article, is that they've been adopted as standards, meaning lots of things on the back-end... but most importantly, at the consumer level, there is a general acceptance and expectation of functionality via each interface.  In addition, consumers can (should) be assured that two devices carrying an interface will be able to interconnect to another device with the same (or complementary format of the same) interface regardless of make or model - i.e. they support interoperability across brands.

For any company that owns the critical intellectual property defining a standard, if you can manage to connect dots for a consumer, positive network externalities await you.

Problems with interfaces and standards


In general, inter-device connections tend to confuse and scare the non-geek consumers, and for good reason... They come in strange shapes, sizes, colors, require wires, passwords, control panels, etc... and they are complex and they come into the market in many ways... with a splash, like a mouse, or like a tornado.

I admit that above, I cheated a little.  Some of the examples I gave for standards don't always fulfill their marketed expectations. HDMI had and still has issues with interoperability, and Bluetooth is often and rightfully criticized for its profile madness.  There are always market truths, and marketing messages.  As always, caveat emptor.

To me, the best interface standard is the one you never notice!  It just works.  This is the holy grail phenomenon.  Not noticing frequently entails not seeing the wires... so of course wireless interfaces are particularly interesting to me.  However, I am the first to admit that my work-life is very much consumed with some very important wired interfaces... (USB, Apple's 30-pin, HDMI... etc).

As an example, I wish most consumers appreciated how much "stuff" is happening over the iPod dock connector.  Just getting audio out of the iPod is a unique engineering, business relationship, and component economics challenge.  Apple has made its own proprietary standard, and while it's a challenging standard to work with, they've earned it to a degree by delivering an incredible consumer experience in the iPod/iPhone, the ecosystem's host gadget.  The accessory world pays to play as a result.  What's incredible to me is that pretty much every modern interface standard has some sort of obstacle course that must be navigated in order to implement... system integrators spend most of their time with this stuff.

This is the other problem-set when it come to interface standards – working with a given standard can be easy or challenging.  Highly planned and rationalized standards tend to be easier for device makers to employ, as the technology vendors (connector makers, protocol baseband chip suppliers, etc) have competition and thus have to earn their customer the old fashioned way, through affordability, quality of support, and solution convenience.  The more proprietary and closed a standard is, the harder (and more expensive) it typically is to access and implement, and unfortunately this slows the growth and decreases the standard's overall potential.

The pursuit of the next big thing standard


Much of the electronics industry is driven by the pursuit of creating a technology that can become a standard. Duh. Silicon companies, algorithm IP creators, etc... can retire once they land a standard.  It's the home-run everyone wants.

There is no one way to be successful in achieving this.  It can and has happened by many recipes and business models.

Standard creation involves tradeoffs:
- Trying to be all things to all people versus risking not doing enough and thus missing a critical application and losing to a competitive standard.
- Doing it alone, doing it with partners
- Opening it up, or keeping it proprietary

The standards creators can be anything from a single engineer, to a startup, to an R&D lab of an industry giant (how Bluetooth began at Ericsson), to a committee of all of the above...  There are also practical, technical, and economic implications, which is why silicon companies are often right in the middle of these discussion.  Most of the standards above require chip-based solutions for implementing, and thus chipmakers become vital part of any go-to-market strategy for a standards format, particularly wireless ones.

Go-to-market strategies also run the gamut of business models.  There are companies like Apple who create new standards and just take them to market – the "why wait for everyone else... I need this" approach.  They like to create proprietary standards and if they're lucky... down the road force partners in the industry to pay to use their connectors, protocols, etc...  Microsoft too.  Nintendo too.  Think game controller plugs.  Microsoft used a custom variant of USB for Xbox controller accessories and a custom variant of 802.11 for their wireless Xbox 360 controllers and headsets.  Nintendo uses a custom profile over Bluetooth for the Wii.

There are also marketing SIGs.  Joint bodies chaired often by the inventor entity(or entities). These participants may have been part of the design phase of the standard as well, or the tail end of it to get their 2 cents in so they feel ownership.  Look at Bluetooth SIG, WiMedia Alliance, Wireless USB, WirelessHD, WHDI, WiGig Alliance to see works in process at various levels of success/maturity.  Interface standards are really no different than format wars in media (Blu-ray, HD-DVD, VHS, Betamax).  Just that in format wars you also involve the media owners which opens up another can of worms...

What any of these approaches reveal is that the one thing you need to create a successful standard is: a center of gravity.

Be one.  Make one.  Find one.


My feeling on marketing standards about 4 years ago was: find a center of gravity in the industry, and you will find a potential sponsor of a standard.

Apple is a center of gravity because of their leadership in design and software.  Their almost flawless execution in the portable/mobile world has solidified this for years to come.  So there you go - great example.  Build one of the coolest product ever designed, put tons of clever marketing behind it, build in your own core technology, publish a programming guide and API to access your IP, and create a license program, and... ok... this is not for everyone.

Who else is out there that has muscle?  Who defines and builds platforms and owns networks?   Who else build compelling user experiences?  Who has vast marketing budgets?

Intel?  Yes.  Qualcomm?  Yes.  Heard of CDMA.  Microsoft?  Yes.  Verizon?  Well they certainly try.  Google?  Yes.  Nintendo?  Yes.  Sony?  Yes.  Once more so, but still have rabbits in hats.  Cisco?  Probably?  Dell?  Yes.  Vizio?  Maybe.

On their own, some of these require a little imagination, I'll give you that... but vision and the will to shoot the moon come at many moments, and these companies have track records and resources that those with a vision on a new standard would die to have in their quiver.

Certainly, a center of gravity can arise from groups of enough firms.  For some small firms, there-in lies a marketing strategy.  The WiGig Alliance mentioned earlier is an example of an alliance that is largely dependent on one silicon startup's success - Wilocity - who have decided to create a center of gravity around a specification, and now it is up to them to deliver the key enabling silicon.

What haven't I mentioned?


What are some other ways to find a center of gravity that can affect an interface standard's success?  Who has the power to ascertain what technologies are best for consumers?  Who has the power to shape the product design decisions at a CE device maker?

Stay tuned...
Monday
Jan122009

Palm Pre sets a bar, prepares to see it raised yet again by others.

Telstra exec: new Android-based HTC phone 'better' than Pre - Engadget.

In my opinion, Palm Pre is the new bar as far as phone concept is concerned.  Execution another matter, the touch screen plus physical keyboard combo in an attractive chassis with a sharp GUI is the recipe that the G1, iPhone, and Storm miss by a margin. So for me, I gotta give props to Palm for starting with the right ingredients.

Of course, the comments from the likes of Telstra are inevitable, and there is some serious weight to their stance.... however, I am not convinced it will be an HTC device that rocks the world via Android, but it will probably be someone... and soon. So while I like the Pre and all, I am also quite confident that Palm did little else than show the Android world how to wrap up some nifty features into a nicer piece of hardware. I say Android because they are coming off a strong act 1, even if it was severely lacking in my eyes, and while it would serve Apple and BlackBerry to take a lesson from Palm, I doubt they will... they have their core approach that hasn't failed them yet, whereas the Android world is just getting their legs under them.

For all the Palm hype and positive reception to the Pre, sadly, I just don't see Palm keeping up with Apple, Google, BlackBerry and Microsoft when it comes to keeping the innovation at the edge.  Apple's frontierism, Googles openness, BlackBerry's faithful, and Microsofts relentless cashiness will not be easily thwarted.  Brutal world we live in.
Friday
May232008

Apple's Trojan Horse... it may be only a sandbox

Over on Micro Everything, Mats picked up on an recent WSJ article about Apple’s wireless audio potentialities. I too have given this plenty of thought… no big surprise… but I just can’t keep quiet about my random toughts anymore… there are many things I find pretty intriguing about Apple’s approach to this wireless audio distribution, but the aspect I want to talk about foremost is how sneaky and un-Apple they’ve been in rolling it out.Wireless audio by Apple has been leaking into the Apple platform, reaching the more adventuresome consumers via a series of Trojan Horse tactics…

  1. The Airport Express. It started here with a simple point-to-point wireless audio feature called Airtunes about 4 years ago. The two primary limitation… it only allowed point-to-point links and the source point had to be iTunes running on a computer. Well now that has changed…

  2. The 2nd generation Airport Express with Wireless-N has also seen the quiet launch or point-to-multi-point airtunes. Now you can play your iTunes to more than one Airport Express endpoint at any time.

  3. Because Airtunes is a custom audio payload protocol that uses WLAN network as its network transport, any WLAN enabled device with the necessary protocol software running on top of it can be a potential source or receiver of Airtunes content… such as

    1. Another PC - as receiver as well

    2. Apple TV - source or receiver

    3. iPod Touch - as source via WiFi

    4. iPhone - as source via WiFi

    5. iPhones and iPods are also perfect platforms to have your sweet touch screen remote controls… (a la http://www.alloysoft.com/) with all kinds of opportunities for third party skins, features, meta content exploits, etc… and not to mention the hardware only gets cooler and cooler every year, so consumers will constantly be getting more and more GUI capabilities.




The “predictable” wireless speakers would perhaps be very slick looking speakers with Airport express electronics built in.All in all I say, what a platform!!!?? Compare this to Microsoft… who have had so many false starts here, with big splash promises that just never measured up when put to the early adopter stress tests… but they have their Xbox I suppose… as if!As for Apple, I just can’t wait for the APIs to mature and for the community of nifty software developers to catch on and build out a great set of exeriences…But mine isn’t all glowing… being who Apple is, I see two potential impediments to world domination in this space…

  1. How much will Apple bind the experience to iTunes and protected AAC contents?  If it’s more open - platform and library agnostic… you have the makings of something really interesting.

  2. Another caveat is that I don’t know of any high throughput WLAN in urban environments anymore. I am not sure WLAN networks will give the kind of QoS needed to maintain robust synchronized multi-point wireless audio instances… I’ve all but given up on WiFi in NY. Too crowded… too many APs fighting it out… tough problems, no doubt.


Apple’s under the radar approach is a nice way to hedge against exposing the system infrastructure risks… and in the meantime, they can quietly build out the user-level application functionality in a nice way… it may be that to truly realize their vision, they’ll need new dedicated wireless audio transports to work this out… for reals… time will tell.
Saturday
Jun092007

Apple Insider: “Where is Apple making up for low profits on Apple TV?”

Let me add my thoughts on where Apple believes it will be making money.

AppleInsider notes that profits are low on the Apple TV (based on iSuppli's latest teardown results) and therefore it must be a market-share/customer-acquisition, game. While I do agree they had to price the hardware faintly (if only not to offend would-be customers), there surely is more to it than to say it's short-term strategy is only about gaining market penetration. I would be willing to bet a Apple TV that Apple in fact has a business plan that is a shiny-happy, positive NPV. I can all but guarantee it. Whether it is realistic, I don't know. Time will tell.

One must presume that Apple's marketing folks factored in some incremental sales of iTunes content that is part of the unit contribution for each Apple TV sold. Afterall, iTunes is more or less a fixed cost at this point, and the Apple TV adds another point-of-sale. Whaddya think? Afterall, unless you are a dedicated iTunes user, the Apple TV is basically hamstrung, and quite undifferentiated against other DMAs.

Microsoft has similar tactics... if not with more lofty goals. Their Xbox is not a money maker on hardware sales alone, in fact rumor is it is quite the opposite. But they make up for it on the games/software/accessories sales. Which have very healthy gross margins baked in.

These are all networked business models. Not as simple as classical consumer electronics economics anymore.
Tuesday
Jun052007

Photosynth: Mindblowing

Check out Photosynth. The MSR team just blew my mind in this video I saw.

One day, nowhere in the world will be un-explorable. The convergence of digital photography, global cartography, social networking, and webservices is previewed here.