If I was the next President – my Apollo project…

I’d tell the Gasoline marketing companies (you know, the guys who own service stations) to develop a supply chain and service model to enable the following, and start rolling it out by 2011.

I’d tell automakers that 10% of their models sold in 2012 should utilize this infrastructure…

I call it Voltaire, for fun. Think replaceable power-cells (e.g. batteries).

voltaire.png

Feel free to click on the above picture to get a closer look. The idea is simple. Take what we’re used to and instead of selling gasoline, sell batteries.

I’ve seen this concept before bandied about… I like it, the more I think about it.

Here’s why:

  • Drivers will never have to worry about vehicle “down-time” associated with plug-in scenarios.
  • Drivers retain user experience model of service stations which they know. Less re-training of mass behavior.
  • Infrastructure model is the same as today. Gas stations can slowly roll out battery swap service… similar footprint to car washes. Relative low cost capital equipment. Initial costs are low, and scale. The amount of batteries required in charger-WIP (and thus charging equipment, obsolescence, hazard, etc) scales with the amount of demand at a given station.
  • Economics of service stations remains. Snacks still sell. That’s where all the margin is in running service stations.
  • Battery recharge/refurb. processes and equipment can be decoupled from consumer. Continuous improvement and innovations in processing/handling can differentiate service providers and justify a market for service providers
  • Car always has fresh, quality-assured battery.
  • Automobile drive-trains can be battery independent. Can still be Hybrid, battery only, multi-chemistry, etc. Carmakers can still differentiate drive-trains while relying on a industry standardized battery market.
  • Battery chemistries can be decoupled from automobile platform life-cycle. Drivers can experience the benefits from improvements in battery technology throughout the lifetime of vehicle ownership.
  • Better yet, call it a power-cell instead of a battery, and when fuel cells catch up in volumetric power density, they can play too.
  • What else…

And here’s maybe why not:

  • Defining standard battery package requires centralized body to expedite.  The more governmental this agency is, the less efficient it will be.  The more private, the less cohesive.  We need an intelligent benefactor with deep pockets.  Accepting term sheets now…
  • Defining battery integration into vehicle platform may be difficult. The more rigid the standard, the less design freedom automakers.  Power systems interfacing is no laugh either.  It’s a serious and challenging engineering problem to solve.
  • Engineering swapping mechanism may prove costly. Manual labor intensive operation is an option, but human error factors in.  Coming from a background on semi-automated manual processes, I am sure there is an economical way to simplify this operation.  And I’m all for stimulating technician-level, green-tech, jobs.
  • Automotive industry would need to adopt and adjust to a new swappable battery subsystem. May result in core-battery + supplemental architecture… adding cost to platform.
  • What else…

Stupid? Tell us why.

Naive? Tell us why.

Impossible? Tell us why.

You got something better? Tell us why.

There is either too much inaction, or too much secrecy in charting out where we are headed. How does the market organize quick enough to rescue us from rising gas prices? The auto industry has had far too many false starts… (yes GM, I’m talking to you) it’s time to plot a course and get this ball rolling. That we’ve been selling hybrids in this country for almost 12 years now… is a farse. They still run on gas, get less than 70 mpg, and are expensive… and Joe Jones on main street didn’t even know what a hybrid was 2 years ago. Hybrids are such a half measure compared to all-electric products that have been forced to go it alone in a risky premium niche (Yes, Tesla, I’m talking to and rooting for you).

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2 Comments

  1. Posted June 14, 2008 at 6:49 am | Permalink

    Some people are, but I have doubts this will catch on for two reasons: 1) the infrastructure cost would be very high and 2) there are energy storage technologies in the works that promise very rapid charging – in as little 5 minutes. This would mean charging stations can have a much cheaper charging unit installed. The idea of battery swapping is based on today’s batteries — not batteries of tomorrow.

  2. Posted June 16, 2008 at 2:16 am | Permalink

    Seems to me that it’ll be a while before fast-chargeable Lithium-based batteries, like those based on MIT’s lithium nickel manganese oxide technology or similar, will be ready for prime time. For the next two or three product design cycles 6-8 years… (which matters when you build cars without decoupling the batteries) you are likely going to be faced with very high cost… meaning it will be a niche/premium offering… leaving room for mixed-modes service models.

    Further, I sense that the promise of fast-charge is like so many other “ideal world” big promises (like interoperability of Bluetooth or the omniprescence of WiMAX, from my other world)… they are faced with practical limitations. For these fast charge batteries… for instance… what kind of power source can you recharge a 35 kW-hr battery with… in say 10-minutes as you suggest… that’s right.. you need 250 kilowatts of power. Home-power? No way. Even service stations… how can you expect to service multiple cars with those kinds of power demands. See a good discussion of all this here… http://www.spectrum.ieee.org/nov07/5685

    My only point is this… arguments like you are making only forestall practical solutions, and immediate adoption. The best way to innovate is incrementally, and I think the approach I outline here decouples the various innovation vectors to enable us to get started walking before we learn to run.

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